- Speech Delivered by Dr. Yang Jianli
Harvard Senior Fellow, President, Initiatives for China
Defense Forum Foundation
February 27, 2009

Good afternoon, Thank you Suzanne for inviting me to address the Defense Forum Foundation. And thank you Ed for sharing Dr. Edwards’ letter with us. I applaud Dr. Edwards and everyone associated with Victims of Communism Memorial for their vision and their fortitude in making this monument a reality.

I also thank everyone here, particularly the hard working staff from Congress and the executive departments for taking the time to come to this luncheon. I will do my best to give some good food for thought that will assist you with the difficult work you have in turning information into effective legislation and policy.

I will talk of 3 things this afternoon. Then I will answer any questions you may have:
1. The importance of the struggle for democracy in China to the long term strategic interest of the United States and the World,
2. The three conditions that must be present at the same time to effect a political change in a country like China
3. The specific foreign policy options Charter 08 presents for achieving an open, stable, democratic China.

Regretfully, I was not here for last month’s luncheon, I understand that Bill Gertz gave a very cogent summary of the security challenges facing the Obama Administration. Bill observed that China’s military buildup, coupled to a dictatorship that is not in any way accountable to its people, can only be perceived as a growing challenge to American security. I would add to Bill’s observations that China’s emergence as an economic and as well as a military power, poses the very real question of whether the Chinese government model of a one party dictatorship without the rule of law and the protection of individual rights will become the model for the world in this new millennium . The very real question for us is: will China be integrated into the world community or will China integrate the world community within its system. I urge everyone in this room to reflect on where the Chinese dictatorship was twenty years ago in 1989. It was on the brink of collapse. It was unthinkable for everyone including the then leaders of China that its brand of communism would be considered by so many people in the world today as a challenge to the American model for the rest of the world? What has the U.S. done wrong in the past 20 years?

Most recently, on December 8, 2008, 303 brave Chinese citizens published Charter 08, a well reasoned call for peaceful constitutional reform. Rather than engage in dialogue with these citizens the Chinese government arrested Liu Xiaobo, a lead signatory, and harassed and intimidated the others. Nonetheless almost 9,000 other Chinese citizens have signed Charter 08. Like H.W. Bush’s sending private envoy shortly after Tiananmen Square massacre to reaffirm his recognition of Deng Xiaoping as the legitimate leader of China, Secretary Clinton’s recent remarks regarding the low priority of Human Rights in her discussions with the Chinese leaders sends the wrong message at a particularly critical moment. Her remarks demoralized Chinese activists and protesters, many of whom had gathered at the US Embassy for her visit to seek her support. The Chinese government can only read Secretary Clinton’s remarks as giving it a free hand to exercise their arbitrary rule. The freedom fighters can only see this as a slap in the face. The world can only see this as the rise of the Chinese political system over the weak U.S. model. As a result I can only see greater repression of Chinese citizens in the future and bolder actions by the Chinese government on the world arena.

What will our inconsistency and compromise bring us? Again I ask you to think where the Chinese government was nearly twenty years ago? Look at where China is today. I hold up charter 08 a virtual roadmap for a peaceful transition to democracy in China which Secretary Clinton has chosen to ignore. What course are we chartering with this mindset? If this continues, think about where the Chinese model will be twenty years from now. Will our silence on human rights eventually come back to silence us here in America? Can we hear a future Secretary of State say “We can’t let the first amendment stand in the way of a harmonious society and economic progress.”

So Bill’s conclusion that the best solution for the challenge China presents to our security and our democratic way of life is that China has a peaceful transition to democracy. I will add to this by saying that a peaceful transition to democracy in China is not only the best outcome for America, but also the best one for China, and world peace as well.

If a peaceful transition to a democratic form of governance in China is the optimum solution for removing this challenge to American security, it then follows that advancing human rights and supporting democratic forces within China must be a vital, integral, and fundamental basis of our bilateral relations with the Chinese government. It is counterproductive to compartmentalize human rights and democratic reform in our discussions with China. We cannot make progress on this issue so vital to our security by raising it only every so often, when the wind blowing just right. Human rights and democratic reform must be the platform upon which all other issues are based.

This brings us to the topic at hand. What are the options for American foreign policy in constructively assisting this peaceful transition to democracy in China? And what role does Charter 08 play in this transition?

In China or any other country, three conditions must be present at the same time for a peaceful transition to democracy to occur.
A viable opposition
A crisis
International support

A hundred years ago, China experienced a serious political crisis and also enjoyed a viable democratic opposition led by Dr. Sun Yat-sen. Unfortunately, there was no international support. This caused Dr. Sun to turn to Lenin in 1917 — a fateful and disastrous turn of events for China and world.

Many of us in this room vividly recall the Pro-Democracy Movement of 1989. A viable opposition had formed and a crisis was clear and present. One million students and sympathizers gathered around the goddess of democracy statue erected in the middle of Tiananmen Square, the likeness of this statue adorns the Victims of Communism Memorial here on Mass Ave. In addition, numerous smaller demonstrations were erupting in cities across China.

Again, the third component. International Support needed failed to materialize.

We can easily draw from these two examples an understanding of how the three conditions of a viable opposition, a crisis, and international support must interplay for our desired outcome of a peaceful transition to democracy.

International pressure in and of itself cannot and should not bring about democracy. The desire for democracy must come from the hearts of Chinese citizens. This desire must be distilled into a viable opposition that is distinctly and undeniably home grown. But as we have seen from the above two examples, International support provides the critical counterweight which tilts the outcome in the right direction. The lack of international support proved disastrous for my countrymen in 1989. On the positive side, the wonderfully orchestrated support of the western world and in particular of Pope John Paul provided the final nudge that brought the swift collapse of the Communist regime and the birth of democracy in Poland.

Then what significance is Charter 08 bringing to make up the three conditions I just elaborated.

Charter 08 has three significant attributes: First is its authorship. It is 100% home grown with an impeccable pedigree. The original 303 signatories are all widely known and respected citizens of China. In addition to the original signatories, almost 9,000 Chinese citizens have affixed their real names to Charter 08. This number should not be underestimated. How many of us in this room would sign such a petition with the full knowledge that in so doing we are putting our jobs and even our freedom at risk? This fact renders moot any contention by the CCP that Charter 08 is the rambling of subversives or the work of outside agitators. It also renders as absurd the conventional wisdom of many academics and so called “sinologists” that the desire for freedom and democracy really does not exist in China.

The second important fact about Charter 08 is that it is a clear and detailed roadmap for achieving the goal of a peaceful transition to democracy. It is a cogent and factual description of the problem as well as the solution:

I quote from the opening remarks of Charter 08:
The Chinese people, who have endured human rights disasters and uncountable struggles, now see clearly that freedom, equality, and human rights are universal values of humankind and that democracy and constitutional government are the fundamental framework for protecting these values.

By departing from these values, the Chinese government’s approach to “modernization” has proven disastrous. It has stripped people of their rights, destroyed their dignity, and corrupted normal human intercourse.

Charter 08 goes beyond describing the situation. It details 19 specific recommendations for peaceful constitutional reform. So Charter 08 is not only a home grown unequivocal call for democratic reform, it is also a roadmap for achieving that reform. It is the basis for discussion and dialogue with the CCP.

And lastly, because it is homegrown and because it has attracted such widespread endorsement, Charter 08 is now a catalyst for the formation of a viable opposition. Remember that a viable opposition is the first condition for democracy to take hold. There now exists a body politic of almost 9000 people who have gathered around a common principle for forming a democratic alternative to the current one party dictatorship. And I assure you that the number is growing everyday and this is just the tip of the iceberg. Not since 1989 have the forces for democracy so visibly formed inside China.

It is therefore not surprising that the communist government has reacted so swiftly by arresting Liu Xiabobo, putting numerous others under city arrest, intimidating almost everyone involved, and desperately attempting to remove any trace of Charter 08 from the internet. The CCP knows all too well that this is most fearful of organized viable opposition—-one of the conditions for the peaceful transition to democracy.

A crisis, the second condition for democratic reform, is also taking shape. Virtually, the only support propping up the Chinese government is its claim of creating economic prosperity. This support is rapidly eroding. The economic downturn is producing an army of unemployed workers and disaffected peasants all across China. As the economic situation worsens, the Chinese governments’ credibility will rapidly dissipate. The swamp will be drained, if you will, laying bare the underlying frustrations, grievances, and contempt for the CCP. Recognizing that they have nothing to lose, people will become bolder and bolder in publicly expressing their dissatisfaction. Charter 08 will become the focal point for the people’s demands for reform.

The viable opposition and the crisis will come together to challenge the 60 years of corruption, repression, and disregard for humanity which the CCP has delivered to the Chinese people.

So two of the three conditions for a peaceful transition to democracy are now forming as we speak.

The stage is now set for America and the western democracies to provide the third condition, international support. The timing is right because the situation is still manageable. Assertive engagement with China can push the government to engage in a constructive dialogue with the opposition. A dialogue that will create the climate for peaceful and orderly democratic reform. Assertive American engagement with the Chinese government at this time can induce the Chinese government to realize that the tide of history is going against them and now is the time to strike a bargain.

Without a forceful and consistent message from America now for the Chinese government to enter a dialogue with the opposition, the Chinese government will be lulled into a false sense of security. That it can delay the inevitable, just as it did in 1989. That just as in 1989 it can intimidate and crush the opposition into submission. This could and probably will set in motion cataclysmic confrontations of unpredictable proportions. At the very least, America will have lost another opportunity to tip the scales toward democracy in China. America will lose a vital opportunity to eliminate the biggest challenge to its own security and for freedom for fully one quarter of the world’s population.

I must add at this time that America has little to lose and much to gain by assertively and consistent engaging China on the subject of democratic reform. Many argue that China will react by pulling the plug on their considerable holdings of U.S. debt. This is self imposed fear. The Chinese government knows this would be suicide for them.

China indeed will raise the volume and issue all sorts of threats privately and even publicly. But I urge everyone to consider what happened earlier this year when the European Parliament was about to award the Sakharov Prize for Freedom of Thought to the Chinese Activist, Hu Jia. The Chinese government made forceful and even belligerent threats to the EP. Much to their credit, the European Parliament went ahead and awarded the prize to Hu Jia. China did nothing more than issue a pro forma protest.

At this critical moment America cannot be driven by self imposed fears. The conditions for a peaceful transition to democracy are coming into play. The signers of Charter 08 are giving America and the world a wake-up call. We cannot afford to miss that call.

But a detailed list of effective policies can emerge only after we rid ourselves of the delusions and false assumptions upon which our China policy has long been based. Above all, we must understand democracy in China is homegrown and not imposed by outside world as many have suggested and many others would worry it would be. But this does not mean that we must sit back and wait for democracy to bloom. Instead, it means engaging with and nurturing democratic forces already at work in China. I believe today more than ever that a visionary part of the U.S. engagement policy with China is to openly and systematically engage with the Chinese democratic forces and to nurture their growth.
We must send a clear and consistent message to the Chinese government that the time for constitutional reform has come. We must engage our democratic partners around the world to give China the same message.

Specifically, I strongly urge all of you involved in legislation to exercise this great tool of freedom to introduce resolutions that give voice to our commitment to freedom. I applaud the Senate resolution, introduced by Senators Casey and Brownback, supporting charter 08, calling for the release of Liu Xiaobo and urging democratic reforms in China. I congratulate Congressman McCotter for drafting a similar resolution for the House.

Furthermore we must become proactive in our support of democracy. By proaction I mean we should take actions that put the Chinese government on the defensive in a way that forces them to confront the fact that they are on the wrong side of history. AND, and the same time gives hope to the democratic forces inside of China. I will give you this example of proactive policy: I call it the DOCTRINE of RECIPROCITY. When U.S. government officials travel to China their movements, their contacts, and their communications are tightly controlled. If officials give a speech it is not typically broadcast to the Chinese people. Congressman Chris Smith of New Jersey reported that on his last trip to China, he could not access his own website on the Internet. Even President Obama’s inauguration speech was edited before it was published in China.

Virtually all American media are blocked in China. Here in the United States China can freely broadcast. In fact it is estimated that over 90% of the Chinese language broadcasts in the U.S. are Chinese government controlled. The Chinese government uses such freedom to extend its influence with Chinese communities in the United States. In the United States today, the Chinese government and its surrogates have wide access to our universities, think tanks, and broadcast studios through which they can advance their opinions and rationalize their actions. When a Chinese government official speaks at a University such as Harvard or Yale, the government controlled media in China uses the association with these prestigious institutions to enhance its credibility and validity to its own people at home. Chinese people can protest here. Chinese people cannot protest in China. U.S. citizens cannot protest in China. Under the Doctrine of Reciprocity the United States would demand the same rights and freedoms be extended to American citizens and officials, an American media in China that we extend to Chinese citizens and officials, and Chinese media here in the United States. In the exchange of ideas with China we must demand a level playing field.

I firmly believe that it is not too late to summon our better angels, and to stand on the right side of history. We must apply a much more strategic yardstick to determine the right policies toward the Chinese government. We must realize that at the most fundamental level, we are engaging in a struggle between two completely different views of humanity. One says man is just serf of the state with no right. The other states that human beings have rights and it is the purpose of the state to protect them. In this regard we must strive to restore Human Rights to its rightful place as the very fabric that binds our foreign policy together. This will not earn the retribution of the Chinese government but respect and the realization that it is dealing with people of strength and character. This is what the Chinese government fears the most. This more than anything else will put America on equal footing in its negotiations on other bilateral issues and restore America’s standing in the world.

To do so will not only make an historic leap toward world peace but it will also reaffirm America’s moral standing in the world. It will reaffirm that the lifeblood of America is not in what it consumes but in what it believes. It will tell the world once again that America’s commitment to freedom and democracy is not a costume that it wears only on special occasions but the very foundation of its existence. Through this we will ensure that the American model of the freedom, justice, of a government of the people, by the people and for the people will be model we pass on to our children.

Thank you very much